Israel-Hamas Draft Ceasefire Deal: Key Terms and Unresolved Tensions

Er Mukesh Singh

The negotiations will require both Israel and Hamas to agree on a new governance model for Gaza, which could involve alternative structures or leadership to replace the current status quo.

If the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal proceeds according to the current draft, the first phase will see a 42-day halt in the fighting in Gaza. During this period, dozens of Israeli hostages will be released alongside hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Israeli military forces are expected to pull back to the edges of Gaza, and this retreat will allow many Palestinians to return to their homes, or what remains of them, as humanitarian aid is significantly increased. The deal aims to provide a temporary pause in the conflict while addressing key humanitarian concerns, though the long-term peace process remains uncertain.

The question is if the ceasefire will survive beyond that first phase.

The continuation of the ceasefire deal will depend on further negotiations set to begin within weeks. During these talks, Israel, Hamas, and mediators from the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar will need to address the complex issue of how Gaza will be governed. Israel insists on the elimination of Hamas as part of any long-term solution, while other parties will likely seek alternative governance structures. These discussions will be critical in determining the region’s future stability.

If a deal is not reached within the 42 days to initiate the second phase, Israel may resume its campaign in Gaza with the aim of destroying Hamas. This could occur even while dozens of hostages remain in the hands of the militants, complicating the situation further.

Hamas has agreed to a draft of the ceasefire deal, according to two officials. However, Israeli officials have stated that some details are still being finalized, meaning terms may change or the entire deal could fall apart. The draft, as seen by the Associated Press, outlines several key provisions, including a temporary halt in hostilities, the release of hostages and prisoners, and Israeli troop withdrawals from Gaza. Yet, the potential pitfalls include disagreements over Gaza’s future governance, with Israel demanding the removal of Hamas, which remains a significant point of contention. If these issues are not resolved, the ceasefire could collapse, and hostilities might resume.

During the first phase of the ceasefire deal, Hamas is expected to release 33 hostages in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. By the end of this phase, all living women, children, and elderly individuals held by the militants should be freed. This phase aims to build trust and pave the way for further negotiations on Gaza’s future governance and long-term peace.

Around 100 hostages remain captive inside Gaza, including a mix of civilians and soldiers. The Israeli military believes that at least a third of them may have already died, adding a sense of urgency and complexity to the ongoing negotiations for their release as part of the ceasefire deal.

On the first official day of the ceasefire, Hamas is expected to release three hostages, followed by another four on the seventh day. After that, weekly releases will take place as part of the ceasefire arrangement. These incremental releases are designed to build trust and facilitate further negotiations.

The release of hostages and Palestinians is a complex issue. The initial 33 hostages released by Hamas will include women, children, and those over 50, nearly all of whom are civilians. The deal also commits Hamas to freeing all living female soldiers. Hamas will prioritize releasing living hostages first, but if the number of living hostages doesn’t reach 33, the remaining numbers will be filled with the bodies of the deceased. Not all hostages are held by Hamas, so coordinating with other militant groups to secure their release could pose a significant challenge.

In exchange for the release of hostages, Israel will free 30 Palestinian women, children, or elderly individuals for each living civilian hostage freed. For every female soldier released by Hamas, Israel will free 50 Palestinian prisoners, including 30 serving life sentences. In return for the bodies handed over by Hamas, Israel will release all women and children it has detained from Gaza since the war began on October 7, 2023.

Dozens of men, including soldiers, will remain captive in Gaza until the second phase of the deal. The release of these individuals is contingent on the progress of future negotiations and the fulfillment of the conditions outlined in the subsequent phase of the ceasefire agreement.

During the first phase of the proposed ceasefire deal, Israeli troops are expected to pull back into a buffer zone approximately one kilometer (0.6 miles) wide inside Gaza, along its borders with Israel. This military withdrawal is aimed at reducing tensions and creating space for humanitarian aid and further negotiations.

The Israeli withdrawal into a buffer zone will allow displaced Palestinians to return to their homes, including in Gaza City and northern Gaza. Many Palestinians are eager to return, despite the widespread destruction of homes due to Israel’s military campaign. However, complications arise from Israel’s insistence on controlling the movement of Palestinians to the north. This control is aimed at preventing Hamas from reintroducing weapons into those areas, ensuring that the militants do not regain strength in the region.

Throughout the war, the Israeli military has effectively severed northern Gaza from the rest of the region by holding the Netzarim Corridor, a strip where they cleared out Palestinian populations and established military bases. This allowed Israel to search individuals fleeing from the north into central Gaza, preventing anyone from attempting to return.

The draft seen by the Associated Press specifies that Israel will vacate the corridor as part of the ceasefire deal. In the first week, Israeli troops will withdraw from the main north-south coastal road, Rasheed Street, opening a route for Palestinians to return. By the 22nd day of the ceasefire, Israeli forces are expected to vacate the entire Netzarim Corridor, allowing further access for displaced Palestinians.

As talks continued on Tuesday, an Israeli official insisted that the military would maintain control of the Netzarim Corridor and that Palestinians returning north would have to undergo inspections there, though the official did not provide specific details. This statement underscores potential frictions in the ongoing negotiations, especially regarding Israel’s control over key territories.

Throughout the first phase, Israel will also retain control of the Philadelphi Corridor, the strip of land along Gaza’s border with Egypt, including the Rafah Crossing. Hamas has dropped its previous demands for Israel to withdraw from this area.

In terms of humanitarian aid, the first phase will see a significant increase in the entry of supplies into Gaza, with hundreds of trucks carrying food, medicine, and fuel to alleviate the dire situation. This scale of aid delivery will far exceed what Israel has allowed throughout the course of the war.

For months, aid groups have faced significant challenges in distributing even the limited aid entering Gaza due to Israeli military restrictions and widespread robberies of aid trucks by gangs. An end to fighting, as outlined in the ceasefire plan, should alleviate some of these issues.

The need for aid is immense, with malnutrition and disease rampant among Palestinians living in overcrowded tents with limited access to food and clean water. Many hospitals have been damaged and lack supplies. The draft deal specifies that equipment will be allowed into Gaza to build shelters for those whose homes were destroyed and to restore vital infrastructure, including electricity, sewage, communications, and roads.

However, the implementation of this aid plan could present additional problems. Israel has historically restricted the entry of certain equipment, arguing that it could be used by Hamas for military purposes. One Israeli official mentioned that arrangements are still being worked out for the distribution and cleanup process, with a clear goal to prevent Hamas from having any role in the operation.

Further complicating matters, Israel’s government remains committed to its plan to ban UNRWA (the United Nations Relief and Works Agency) from operating in Gaza and to sever all ties between the agency and the Israeli government. UNRWA is the primary distributor of aid in Gaza and provides essential services such as education and healthcare to millions of Palestinian refugees across the region, including in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

If the first phase progresses as planned, the sides must then tackle the second phase, with negotiations set to begin on Day 16 of the ceasefire.

Phase two’s broad outlines are set in the draft: all remaining hostages are to be released in exchange for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a “sustainable calm.” However, this seemingly straightforward exchange raises much larger issues.

Israel has stated it will not agree to a full withdrawal until Hamas’ military and political capabilities are completely eliminated and it can no longer rearm, ensuring that Hamas no longer governs Gaza. On the other hand, Hamas insists that it will not release the last hostages until Israel removes all troops from every part of Gaza.

The negotiations will have to find a solution for governing Gaza, which could require Hamas to accept its own removal from power. Hamas has suggested it might agree to this but may seek a role in any future government. However, Israel has firmly rejected any involvement of Hamas in governance.

The draft agreement specifies that a deal on the second phase must be reached by the end of the first phase. Both sides will be under pressure to come to an agreement. If they fail, the situation could take various turns. Hamas initially sought written guarantees for the continuation of the ceasefire until phase two is agreed upon but has accepted verbal guarantees from the United States, Egypt, and Qatar. Israel, however, has not provided such assurances, which leaves room for Israel to threaten military action or resume its campaign, as Prime Minister Netanyahu has suggested.

Hamas and the mediators are hoping that the momentum from the first phase will make it hard for Netanyahu to resume the military assault, as this could risk losing the remaining hostages, which would likely lead to widespread criticism. On the other hand, not fully dismantling Hamas might anger some of Israel’s political allies.

The third phase is expected to be less contentious, involving the return of the bodies of remaining hostages in exchange for a reconstruction plan for Gaza, to be supervised internationally, lasting between three to five years.

Courtesy: The Indian Express

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