“Mahayuti’s Victory Evident in SC-Reserved Seats, Dominates Constituencies with 15%+ Dalit Population”

After the Dalit vote in Maharashtra shifted away from the Mahayuti during the Lok Sabha elections, driven by the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi’s (MVA) campaign highlighting “threats to the Constitution and reservation,” the state’s ruling alliance made a strong recovery in the Assembly elections. The Mahayuti’s resurgence was particularly evident in constituencies where the Scheduled Castes (SC) play a pivotal role.

In the Assembly polls, the Mahayuti secured a resounding victory, winning 20 of the state’s 29 SC-reserved seats. Additionally, the alliance triumphed in 59 of the 67 general seats where SCs comprise at least 15% of the population. With Dalits making up about 12% of Maharashtra’s population, as per the 2011 Census, these results reflect a significant shift in Dalit voting patterns.

Within the Mahayuti, the BJP led with 10 SC-reserved Assembly seats, followed by the NCP led by Ajit Pawar with five, and the Shiv Sena faction of Eknath Shinde with four. A minor ally also claimed one SC-reserved seat. In contrast, the MVA struggled in this regard, with the Congress winning four SC seats, Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena (UBT) securing three, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP) claiming two, totaling just nine SC-reserved seats.

This outcome marks a significant shift in the political landscape, with the ruling Mahayuti alliance consolidating Dalit support and showcasing its dominance in constituencies where the SC population holds considerable influence.

In the 67 general seats where the Scheduled Castes (SC) population comprises at least 15%, the Mahayuti alliance secured a decisive victory, with the BJP alone winning 42 of these seats. The NCP followed with eight, and the Shiv Sena won six, while three seats were claimed by minor allies. In stark contrast, the MVA managed to secure just eight of these seats, with the Congress winning three, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena (UBT) claiming two, the Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP) winning two, and the Peasants and Workers Party claiming one.

This outcome marked a notable shift from the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, where the MVA had triumphed in all five of the state’s SC-reserved parliamentary constituencies. At the Assembly segment level, the MVA had also been leading in SC-reserved segments, with wins in 18 such segments. However, in the recent Assembly elections, the Mahayuti managed to secure victories in 10 SC-reserved segments, with an Independent candidate winning one, underscoring the significant political comeback of the ruling alliance.

Overall, the results reflect a major consolidation of Dalit support in favor of the Mahayuti, reversing earlier trends and marking a significant shift in the state’s electoral dynamics.

In the Lok Sabha polls, the MVA had the upper hand in the 67 general seats where at least 15% of the population is Scheduled Caste (SC), securing victories in 37 segments, compared to the Mahayuti’s tally of 26. The remaining four seats were split evenly between the AIMIM and Independents. However, in the recent Assembly elections, the MVA experienced a significant collapse in these seats, with the Mahayuti more than doubling its tally to 59.

The vote share data further illustrates the Mahayuti’s dominance in these constituencies. In the SC-reserved seats, the Mahayuti secured 49.48% of the total votes, while it garnered 48.14% in the general seats where SCs make up at least 15% of the population. For the MVA, the corresponding figures were 39.43% and 38.14%, respectively.

The winning margin for the Mahayuti was also significantly higher. In SC-reserved seats, its average margin of victory was over 33,820 votes, more than double the MVA’s 16,660 votes. A similar trend was seen in the general seats with at least 15% SC population, where the Mahayuti’s average margin was 33,810 votes, compared to 14,290 votes for the MVA.

While the MVA’s Lok Sabha campaign, which focused on defending the Constitution and reservations, failed to resonate with voters in the Assembly elections, the Mahayuti’s strategy, combined with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal to Dalit, tribal, and OBC communities under the slogan “Ek hain to safe hain” (Together, we are safe), appears to have struck a chord on the ground.

COURTESY: News18 India

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